Erdogan: Bluffer or Potentate?
By Steve Brown
While the US concentrates on the crimes of its perverse and abjectly depraved Elite class, public exposure and the bright light thrown on their heinous crimes seems to have provided a window to get real work done, opposing corrupt US influence elsewhere, especially in Syria.
Syrian security forces are making progress in cutting supply routes to terrorist-held regions, especially versus Jaysh al-Ahrar and Ahrar al Sham … (at least that is what they call themselves at this hour, their names could change next hour)
But in light of the recent HTS terror offensive in Idlib, the informed observer must ask who is arming HTS and the motley crew of assorted ever-morphing terrorist groups still present and on the offensive in Idlib.
Based on intel sources it appears that Saudi and Israel are arming these groups with weapons sourced through a third party. As usual US weaponry supplied to “good rebels” is appearing in the hands of these motley terror groups, but most alarming of all, Turkey is continuing to destabilize the situation.
RTE (Erdogan) seems emboldened by his experience in Afrin but RTE is a questionable character, with his true motives known only to himself. Prima facie Erdogan seems to be playing both sides against each other, with regard to the major powers, ie Russia v US and vice versa. That’s a very dangerous game to play, as Yanukovych discovered in 2014.
RTE has proven himself to be a canny operator so far, narrowly escaping a coup attempt in 2016, but the major political problem Erdogan has now — in tandem with some popular loss of support in the capitol — is linked to the 4 million or so war refugees present in Turkey, most of them from Syria.
The refugees are there largely due to the US and its great ability to subvert and destabilize wherever and whenever it pleases, with Secretary of State Clinton’s 2011 “Arab Spring” igniting a powder keg in Syria, to the great joy of Israel.
According to reports, Erdogan would like to send back at least 700K of these refugees to Syria’s northeast province held by the SDF. Turkey seems to have forced some concession from the former United States to allow a safe zone along the Kurdish western front, west of Manbij, to take the Syrian refugees back, but how this will work in reality is another mystery. Meanwhile RTE continues to push the envelope and will need deeper ties with Russia to continue playing this double game.
Regardless, the US is known to be a treacherous Bad Actor and RTE must be cautious on how he plays off the (US) Evil Empire v any opposition including China, yet another complication.
In Libya, Turkey seems somewhat confident in its alliance with the GNA and appropriating cheap Misurata oil… as can be seen from the conflict map, Libya is relatively quiet at this time.
So, what is Erdogan truly up to? Bluffer or potentate? He seems to be bluffing, but the US leadership enjoys that game as well, so we are “trending sideways” for now. And we are not quite to brinksmanship yet, even though RTE has threatened to invade the Northeast (of Syria).
Personally, and not to divert, in my opinion Iran is the true key to this game (overall) and look for the situation with Iran to warm up again very soon. It would indeed be ironic if Iran were the deuce in the pack to finally call Erdogan’s bluff.
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