This Political Scientist Says Trump Has A 91% Chance Of Winning The Election


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Does anyone remember the polls failing miserably to predict the 2016 election results? The New York Times Upshot gave Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning. Everyone got it wrong except political scientist Helmut Norpoth, who had President Donald Trump winning at 87%.

Norpoth’s “Primary Model” uses data from elections dating back to 1912. Instead of polling a randomized selection of people, he bases his predictions on how well candidates do in primaries. 

While polls have been leaning in former Vice President Biden’s favor FiveThirtyEight’s most recent poll has Biden up 9.5 points — Biden has struggled in his primaries. Biden placed fifth in New Hampshire, which the media tends to ignore when discussing Biden’s otherwise striking lead in the polls. 

The Daily Caller’s Caitlyn McDuffee sat down with Norpoth to talk about his predictions for 2020. Watch the full interview to see why things aren’t looking too favorable for Biden. (RELATED: The Professor Who Long Ago Forecast A Trump Triumph Basks In The Warm Glow Of Being Right)

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