War with Iran only likely in 2nd Presidential Term
The drone attacks on the Aramco oil refinery at Abqaiq and Khurais oil field is – in my opinion – one of the best carried out operations in decades. It’s so open to interpretation, and it serves the hegemon’s narrative so well. If the Houthis have such tactical and strategic capabilities, why didn’t they deploy them sooner against Saudi Arabia? Something must have changed. They must have received better equipment, training or specialists, plus intel. Or maybe the Saudis deliberately let their guard down? The whole thing doesn’t smell right. If it was indeed carried out by Iran via proxy, then it’s a hands down master stroke; the message being: that’s how strong we are, and we can inflict a lot worse if you invade us.
Putting that question aside, war with Iran, even if it would appease the Zionists and the Saud crime family, it would kill Trump’s chances of reelection. He can’t win simply with the hardcore republicans, he needs the moderate vote too. And even his loyalists, some of them at least, are deploring his hawkish policy toward Iran – because he vowed to keep the country out of another Middle Eastern quagmire. Anti-war Democratic candidate Tulsi Gabbard shot a tweet to the president, saying: “Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia’s bitch is not “America First.” Not really a bold remark, since she didn’t include Israel next to Saudi Arabia, but we’ll take what we can get… A day after that, Trump posted on Iran in better spirits, adopting a wait and see attitude: “Remember when Iran shot down a drone, saying knowingly that it was in their “airspace” when, in fact, it was nowhere close. They stuck strongly to that story knowing that it was a very big lie. Now they say that they had nothing to do with the attack on Saudi Arabia. We’ll see?”
Given the circumstances, I believe Trump will hold back from giving the order to attack Iran, at least until he secures a second term. That has been the established war course in the US for some time. Bush Jr and Obama unleashed the big, war operations in their second terms. And it’s unlikely that Trump will break with this tradition. The ‘locked and loaded’ expression is part of the same intimidation doctrine employed by the sick, murderous neocons [this includes Killary and Obomber]. Trump is probably hoping to squeeze a meeting with Rouhani, which he can talk up as a success of diplomacy, a success obtained by his own personal skill as the ‘greatest’ negotiator. Contrary to previous statements – no talks with the US until Washington lifts sanctions – Iran’s supreme leader might change his mind and agree to a meeting between Rouhani and Trump without preconditions. Let’s not forget that the Iranian political establishment is composed of factions too; and they may have different opinions about how to handle this situation as it develops; and a little bit of Russian brokerage may smooth things out. That’s a very optimistic scenario. Realistically speaking, however, the possibility of meeting without preconditions is slim to none. In all likelihood, the Trump Administration will find some way to levy more sanctions and further strong-arm third parties from doing business with Iran. Bribes may work too, or at least, the promise of bribes…
US unilateralism [war with Iran] will impact a great many countries. It’s going to be a supply shock, a financial shock, and no doubt terrorist activities will spawn all over the place in the West – and not necessarily just from Islamic fundamentalists or sleeper cells. It’s up to the remaining great powers to firmly express opposition, not just via press statements, but via military operations as well. Needless to say, the Europeans won’t be much help, since Western Europe and the Balkans harbor US bases and US soldiers, and European mainstream politicians, right and left, are corrupt and spineless. The rest of the sane world must convince the Deep Staters to back off; to accept the fact Iran has escaped their [irrational] grand plans of early 21st century hegemony through destabilization and invasion. If Trump really cares about being popular and about winning, he should listen to real patriots like Douglas Macgregor, get the troops out and accept the multi-polar world system. A true patriot fights to pull/keep his nation out of war, not into it.
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